Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 12.608489 14.440296 16.415233 18.699059 21.263471 24.050115 27.303504
2025-04-06 9.776070 12.222635 15.066919 18.602917 22.864823 27.818936 33.995540
2025-04-13 7.878972 10.441206 13.571514 17.650342 22.794678 29.034680 37.140173
2025-04-20 7.005514 9.765192 13.284272 18.057579 24.313354 32.177162 42.745964
2025-04-27 6.319294 9.206756 13.028471 18.394854 25.662373 35.078514 48.101775
2025-05-04 5.605824 8.515799 12.504583 18.289464 26.365338 37.123909 52.398938
2025-05-11 4.964486 7.845231 11.926117 18.025760 26.784147 38.754560 56.162785
2025-05-18 4.506061 7.386094 11.591754 18.053975 27.573764 40.889714 60.677310
2025-05-25 4.159737 7.055706 11.405913 18.263334 28.606192 43.383262 65.777989
2025-06-01 3.802381 6.669331 11.096361 18.250050 29.287727 45.381324 70.233423
2025-06-08 3.452153 6.257859 10.708909 18.077143 29.698756 46.978918 74.148306
2025-06-15 3.215929 6.010424 10.555603 18.248292 30.627981 49.366059 79.312223
2025-06-22 3.074695 5.917466 10.652751 18.838063 32.263678 52.929045 86.465399
2025-06-29 2.804661 5.573282 10.306163 18.676111 32.688707 54.649230 90.875345
2025-07-06 2.433801 5.008433 9.535601 17.741854 31.786704 54.226247 91.894621
2025-07-13 2.316255 4.901460 9.550299 18.143250 33.107385 57.379632 98.683872
2025-07-20 2.199385 4.783777 9.534481 18.484700 34.336172 60.426683 105.413426
2025-07-27 2.029364 4.545036 9.278596 18.377896 34.781902 62.199005 110.127706
2025-08-03 1.854649 4.279135 8.950186 18.113378 34.929275 63.468777 114.047773
2025-08-10 1.732109 4.108475 8.788135 18.141600 35.589569 65.619846 119.510032
2025-08-17 1.640758 3.994728 8.726697 18.351909 36.582668 68.371820 126.082993
2025-08-24 1.531915 3.832164 8.555644 18.338554 37.160144 70.419797 131.518026
2025-08-31 1.415579 3.641089 8.311772 18.164901 37.425015 71.921525 136.051591